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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still